26-09-2013, 15:57
http://intelligentf1.wordpress.com/2013/...ace-notes/
t wasn’t close, was it? In fact, it looked like it was even more dominant than Friday had suggested – indeed the general suggestion is that Vettel had between two and three seconds in hand. But things are rarely what they seem. Usually, to claim that a car is about a second and a half per lap clear of the field is a bad thing, but in this case it could be seen as bringing of good news. I’m not going to shy away from the fact that this was a crushing victory, but when you dig down, it was not quite as crushing as it first appeared.
The story is all about the laps straight after the safety car. Vettel shows his real pace – essentially he is 1.1s faster in underlying pace in comparison with before the safety car. Rosberg, on the other hand is 1s slower for the first few laps. Only for the last few laps before his stop does Rosberg reach his pre-safety car pace. Admittedly, had Alonso been able to follow this pace, and the evidence is that (on his newer tyres) he could, then he could have come out ahead of Vettel, and at least made a fight of it. But the pace advantage for Vettel on new supersofts would have been 3.5s per lap (0.9s Vettel advantage on supersofts + 1.0s Alonso pace gap supersoft to medium + 1.6s Alonso tyre age) and it is hard to imagine that the winner would have changed.
So how fast was Vettel?
Vettel’s pace is not easy to judge, because it was not consistent from stint to stint. His first stint was quick – only Alonso could claim faster, and then only in the later laps of the stint. And everyone else took three laps to get up to pace. His second stint was 0.5s slower, which is about right for the medium tyres in comparison with the supersofts. Then, after the safety car, he shows what he can really do, and ups the pace by 1.1s. His final stint? 1s slower than his opening stint, and so (at a best guess) 2.1s off what he could do. And he still pulled away at about 1.3s per lap.
In comparison with the opening stint, Webber was only about 0.3s from Vettel, but adding 1.1s of hidden pace doesn’t make for good reading. And he was also disproportinately slow when in clear air in the last stint.
Vettel: fastest on supersoft, +0.5s on medium (at best guess from patching it all together)
Webber: +1.4s on supersoft, +1.9s on medium
Could Mercedes have done better?
What I can’t figure is why Rosberg did not push after the safety car – even though the team were asking him to. Admittedly, the cars behind on newer tyres would (just) have been able to keep up, so it may have made little difference, although it is likely (but not certain) they would have reached phase 2 degradation earlier. I also think that a later stop (ignoring Webber) and going on to supersofts would have been beneficial to Mercedes, as they were significantly better on the softer tyre. I don’t think that they would have beaten Raikkonen. Interestingly, I get that Rosberg was faster than Hamilton – which hasn’t happened for a while.
Rosberg: +1.2s on supersoft, +2.0s on medium
Hamilton: +1.4s on supersoft, +2.1s on medium
Alonso overperforms again
This was not good for Felipe Massa’s hopes of a new job, although he probably didn’t do that badly. Alonso’s first stint contained the fastest supersoft underlying pace in the race, and he made the mediums (which the Ferraris, like the Mercedes, struggled on) last to the end. Massa did OK, but was a lot slower.
Alonso: +0.9s on supersoft, +1.9s on medium
Massa: +1.9s on supersoft, +2.4s on medium
Sigue....
t wasn’t close, was it? In fact, it looked like it was even more dominant than Friday had suggested – indeed the general suggestion is that Vettel had between two and three seconds in hand. But things are rarely what they seem. Usually, to claim that a car is about a second and a half per lap clear of the field is a bad thing, but in this case it could be seen as bringing of good news. I’m not going to shy away from the fact that this was a crushing victory, but when you dig down, it was not quite as crushing as it first appeared.
The story is all about the laps straight after the safety car. Vettel shows his real pace – essentially he is 1.1s faster in underlying pace in comparison with before the safety car. Rosberg, on the other hand is 1s slower for the first few laps. Only for the last few laps before his stop does Rosberg reach his pre-safety car pace. Admittedly, had Alonso been able to follow this pace, and the evidence is that (on his newer tyres) he could, then he could have come out ahead of Vettel, and at least made a fight of it. But the pace advantage for Vettel on new supersofts would have been 3.5s per lap (0.9s Vettel advantage on supersofts + 1.0s Alonso pace gap supersoft to medium + 1.6s Alonso tyre age) and it is hard to imagine that the winner would have changed.
So how fast was Vettel?
Vettel’s pace is not easy to judge, because it was not consistent from stint to stint. His first stint was quick – only Alonso could claim faster, and then only in the later laps of the stint. And everyone else took three laps to get up to pace. His second stint was 0.5s slower, which is about right for the medium tyres in comparison with the supersofts. Then, after the safety car, he shows what he can really do, and ups the pace by 1.1s. His final stint? 1s slower than his opening stint, and so (at a best guess) 2.1s off what he could do. And he still pulled away at about 1.3s per lap.
In comparison with the opening stint, Webber was only about 0.3s from Vettel, but adding 1.1s of hidden pace doesn’t make for good reading. And he was also disproportinately slow when in clear air in the last stint.
Vettel: fastest on supersoft, +0.5s on medium (at best guess from patching it all together)
Webber: +1.4s on supersoft, +1.9s on medium
Could Mercedes have done better?
What I can’t figure is why Rosberg did not push after the safety car – even though the team were asking him to. Admittedly, the cars behind on newer tyres would (just) have been able to keep up, so it may have made little difference, although it is likely (but not certain) they would have reached phase 2 degradation earlier. I also think that a later stop (ignoring Webber) and going on to supersofts would have been beneficial to Mercedes, as they were significantly better on the softer tyre. I don’t think that they would have beaten Raikkonen. Interestingly, I get that Rosberg was faster than Hamilton – which hasn’t happened for a while.
Rosberg: +1.2s on supersoft, +2.0s on medium
Hamilton: +1.4s on supersoft, +2.1s on medium
Alonso overperforms again
This was not good for Felipe Massa’s hopes of a new job, although he probably didn’t do that badly. Alonso’s first stint contained the fastest supersoft underlying pace in the race, and he made the mediums (which the Ferraris, like the Mercedes, struggled on) last to the end. Massa did OK, but was a lot slower.
Alonso: +0.9s on supersoft, +1.9s on medium
Massa: +1.9s on supersoft, +2.4s on medium
Sigue....
Fernando es de otro planeta